According to the Gallup poll that appears in USA Today, Barack Obama has 11-points lead over his Republican rival John McCain. Everyone knows the value of polls. They were all wrong in the last two elections. At D-1: caution.
Winner in the polls = real winner ?
Barack Obama, candidate of the Democrat Party at the White House is credited with 55% of voting intentions against 44% for his rival John McCain. Polls would always have been right, the election would have been simple but it’s not the case. The Democrats are still mobilized because they remember « New Hampshire ». During the primaries, Barack Obama had been announced as the winner but in the end, Hillary Clinton won the State!
It should be noted that several factors distort the polls. There is the complexity of the American system of voting. The system of Electors. To be elected as the President of the United States, the winning candidate must collect at least 270 Electors over 538. A candidate can lose the election even if he has more popular votes than his opponent. This was the case in 2000 for Al Gore.
The other unknown thing is the famous « Bradley effect ». The former black mayor of Los Angeles who was seeking for the governorship of California in 1982 lost the election to everyone’s surprise. In fact, many people didn’t vote for him because of his skin color. What happened ? Some of the people interviewed at the polls didn’t say that they won’t vote for an African-American.
Thirdly, the polls are often wrong. Their methodology is sometimes called into question. They overestimate the participation of blacks and youth. Polls published this sunday confirmed that Barack Obama, the first African-American candidate to the White House, was credited with an advance of 5 to 9 points by the various institutes. He would be elected President of the United States on November 4. In the History of America and specifically since 1948, it has never happened that a candidate announced beaten by more than 5 points a week before the presidential elections reverse the trend and wins the election. According to Allan Lichtman, a historian of presidential elections specialist at the American University in Washington: « reversals situation of last minute do not exist ». Then he adds a final sentence which makes us think : « Each candidate who is lagging behind you wants to tell the story of Harry Truman. But there was no Harry Truman since 60 years ». John McCain dreams of being that one.
How would Wall Street react ?
A candidate preferred among the American people doesn’t mean the candidate will be preferred in the financial sector. Sam Stovall, strategist at Standard & Poor’s explains that : « the market generally prefers Republicans ». A John McCain victory would be greeted with joy in Wall Street. Despite their preference, markets widely expect a victory of the Democrat Barack Obama, who is leading in polls. According to Mace Blicksilver, director of Marblehead Asset Management, an Obama victory is already done by investors in financial markets. However, the reaction of Wall Street won’t be positive. Mace Blicksilver says : « If Obama wins with a considerable advance, I can assure you that this wednesday will be a very difficult day » but if McCain wins, it will be the opposite : « the market will surge 10% at the opening and will stay in rise throughout the day ».
In waiting the outcome of the election, investors have other worries in mind: the rising number of bad news from companies but also the perspective of the G20 to be held in mid November in Washington and displays the hard intention to reform the international financial system …
Final battle : the result.
Whatever the outcome, this presidential election has changed attitudes. Never has an election aroused so much passion for the Americans themselves but also in the world. As each result duel, in sports or in politics, the losers camp will have a hangover in the morning of November 5. For the others, the supporters will have less voice. Why ? Because they would have screamed their joy all night long. Let us not forget that the Presidential election in the United States is not a « game » like the others. The result of the winner determines the future of the world. Yes, it does. The consequences of policy choices can be dramatic. The presence of a man called “W” in the White House has shown it to us. The Americans say that they want the change. They must prove it to the world tomorrow.
